01
Split the chart by timeframe
Compare 5, 10, 20, 50-session and weekly structure instead of mixing every move into one conclusion.
This analysis is as of Sunday, August 16, 2026
It was written on Sunday, August 16, 2026, a day with no regular U.S. equity session. It reads from Friday, August 14, 2026: the regular close of $44.06 and the after-hours snapshot of $44.1685. It looks ahead to the next regular session, Monday, August 17, 2026.
This is a snapshot of one weekend, retained as a worked example of the methods these courses teach. It is not a live view, not a current view, and it has not been updated since. The session it looks ahead to has long since been and gone; every price, level, scenario and conclusion below describes the market as it stood at the close on August 14, 2026.
Real data, and what that does and does not mean
This page analyses real market data on a real security. IREN is a listed company, and every bar, price, indicator and backtest result comes from the market data cited in the sources at the foot of this page. It is educational analysis, published for educational use only: it is not personalized investment advice, not a trade signal, and not a guarantee of any outcome.
The backtests here are exploratory
- The patterns were chosen after inspecting this sample, not before it.
- Every signal is evaluated at the session close, and every forward result is a future close-to-close return.
- Transaction costs and execution effects are excluded.
- The samples are small — several studies rest on fewer than ten events.
- None of it is an out-of-sample forecast. The studies describe what happened inside one 50-session window and nothing else.
Every figure on this page derives from one published file: iren-analysis-data.json — the 50-session dataset, its derived weekly bars, indicators, pattern studies, analog states, levels and scenarios. The arithmetic is yours to check.
Volume differs by provider. The historical bars use the consistent StockAnalysis / S&P Global Market Intelligence series; the current-session snapshot uses WSJ market data. Volume totals can differ by provider and market coverage. Price levels are aligned across the cited sources.
Supplemental lab · IREN · As of 08/16/2026
IREN Multi-Timeframe Analysis
Actual daily bars, exploratory pattern studies, company catalysts, current technical state, and conditional scenarios for the next regular session on Monday, August 17, 2026.
Learning objectives
What this lab does
The goal is to describe the market and define conditions—not to pretend one historical sample can predict one future day.
02
Test repeated price patterns
Measure what happened after large moves, gaps, momentum runs and weak closes in the available 50-session sample.
03
Build tomorrow scenarios
Use support, resistance, volatility, analog states and catalysts to define bullish, range and bearish paths.
Data boundary: Sunday, August 16 is not a regular U.S. equity session. The analysis uses the August 14 close of $44.06 and the $44.1685 after-hours snapshot. Historical studies use 50 completed sessions from June 4 through August 14. These backtests are exploratory, selected in-sample, exclude costs and have small samples. Historical volume differs slightly by market-data provider; prices are consistent. [S1][S2]
Interactive lab 1
Multi-timeframe structure
Change the view and keep the conclusions separate.
IREN actual OHLCV
50 daily sessions and derived weekly barsCandles · volume · optional moving averages
Up candleDown candleSMA 5SMA 10 / bandsSMA 20
Volume differs by provider. The historical bars use the consistent StockAnalysis / S&P Global Market Intelligence series; the current-session snapshot uses WSJ market data. Volume totals can differ by provider and market coverage. Price levels are aligned across the cited sources.
Current dashboard
Technical state at the August 14 close
Short-term trend is constructive; intermediate trend and immediate candle behavior remain mixed.
SMA 5$42.20Close is above
SMA 10$40.96Close is above
SMA 20$39.23Close is above
SMA 50$44.89Close is slightly below
RSI 1450.3Neutral momentum
ATR 14$4.019.1% of close
20D return+31.1%Recovery
50-session return−28.8%Larger decline not fully repaired
Interactive lab 2
Exploratory pattern backtests
Signals are measured at the close; forward returns are future close-to-close changes.
June 4–August 14, 2026 · no costs · in-sample
| Signal date | Signal close | Signal-day return | Forward return |
|---|
Backtest examples
What the recent patterns actually showed
These are the load-bearing observations from the 50-session sample.
−1.95%
After +8% days
Average next-session return was −1.95% across 9 observations. Strong one-day moves often cooled rather than continued immediately.
+5.66%
After −8% days
Average next-session return was +5.66% across 8 observations. The stock repeatedly mean-reverted after large selloffs.
0%
After 3 up closes
Neither of the 2 valid events was positive the next session; August 13 triggered this pattern and August 14 fell 1.56%.
Two valid events — descriptive only. The three-consecutive-up-closes study requires three complete positive close-to-close returns, so the incomplete rolling windows at the start of the sample are excluded. That leaves two valid events in the 50-session sample. The result is descriptive only and is not statistically reliable: do not read a direction into two observations. The count on this card was published before that revision (the dataset beside this page carries revision 2026-08-16-r2); the interactive panel above reads the revised dataset and reports two.
Interactive lab 3
Nearest historical states
Similarity uses standardized return, RSI, close location and relative-volume features inside the same 50-session window.
Analog count8
Positive next day50%
Average next day+1.56%
Median next day+0.52%
MeaningNo strong directional edge
The outcomes were evenly split and very dispersed. The analog median maps to roughly $44.29, but this is not a forecast.
Company context
Catalysts and risks affecting the chart
Price is responding to both operating milestones and the financing required to deliver them.
Recent catalysts
08-13
Horizon 1 delivered to and accepted by Microsoft; NVIDIA Exemplar Cloud status achieved
The first of four 50MW deployments under the five-year $9.7bn Microsoft cloud-services contract was delivered. The release also cited 480MW gross AI Cloud capacity targeted for 2026 and 1.2GW for 2027.
08-13
FY26 results scheduled for August 27, 2026
The scheduled report can increase event risk and implied expectations even before the release.
08-04
Mirantis acquisition completed
IREN said the acquisition strengthens software, orchestration, monitoring and customer support; consideration included approximately 12.6m shares plus other consideration.
07-20
New AI Cloud contracts and higher ARR target
IREN announced $2.8bn of new contracts and raised its year-end 2026 AI Cloud ARR target to more than $4bn, with about 85% under contract.
Risks
!
Execution and valuation expectations
The stock is reacting to large future-capacity and revenue targets; delays, costs or utilization below expectations can reprice the shares quickly.
!
Capital intensity and dilution
IREN disclosed a $6bn at-the-market facility and substantial share issuance in 2026; financing growth can dilute existing holders.
!
Debt and purchase commitments
The company has issued large convertible-note financings and disclosed multi-billion-dollar GPU purchase commitments.
!
High volatility
The 14-session ATR is about $4.01, roughly 9.1% of the current close; gaps and wide intraday ranges are normal in the recent sample.
Current analysis · 08/16/2026
Conditional map for Monday, August 17
Sunday has no regular IREN session. The map starts from Friday’s $44.06 close and $44.17 after-hours price.
45
Range / consolidation
$42.06–$46.43. Buyers hold the rebound while sellers continue defending the upper zone. This is the base case.
32
Bullish continuation
Hold $43.69–$44.06 and close above $46.43. Buyers then test $49.19, with $50.30 above it.
23
Bearish retracement
Lose $42.06 and fail to reclaim it. Sellers then target $40.96–$39.35; $38.69 is the recovery invalidation.
These numbers are scenario weights, not calibrated probabilities. A weekend gap, Bitcoin move, sector news or a new company announcement can invalidate the map before the open.
Decision checklist
What to watch after the open
1
Opening location
Above $46.43, inside $42.06–$46.43, or below $42.06. Do not apply the same scenario to all three opens.
2
Acceptance
A wick is not confirmation. Watch whether price closes and continues beyond the level.
3
Participation
Compare Monday’s volume and range with recent bars. Friday volume was not an expansion signal.
Knowledge check
Read the analysis correctly
1. Why is the 50-session picture not simply bullish?
The recovery is real, but the intermediate decline has not been completely repaired.
2. What confirms the bullish Monday scenario?
The bullish path requires price progress and acceptance beyond resistance.
3. What was the main limitation of the pattern backtests?
The studies are exploratory descriptions, not validated predictive systems.
Sources
Data and official references
Retrieved and analyzed on August 16, 2026. Each source is cited by publisher and location rather than linked, so the citation stays readable offline and in print; the locations below are exactly the ones the figures were read from, and they are recorded in the published dataset as well.