{
  "meta": {
    "ticker": "IREN",
    "company": "IREN Limited",
    "analysis_date": "2026-08-16",
    "last_completed_session": "2026-08-14",
    "next_session": "2026-08-17",
    "timezone": "America/New_York",
    "historical_window": "2026-06-04 through 2026-08-14",
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    "data_revision": "2026-08-16-r2",
    "revision_note": "The three-consecutive-up-closes study requires three complete positive close-to-close returns; initial incomplete rolling windows are excluded."
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          "avg": -2.494418507702742,
          "median": -1.701700052931443,
          "positive": 37.5
        }
      },
      "events": [
        {
          "date": "2026-06-08",
          "close": 59.19,
          "signal_return": 8.905243790248374,
          "fwd1": -8.73458354451765,
          "fwd3": -4.1898969420510195,
          "fwd5": 2.804527791856737
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-06-11",
          "close": 56.71,
          "signal_return": 10.073757763975145,
          "fwd1": 5.3958737436078374,
          "fwd3": 4.355492858402399,
          "fwd5": 5.730911655792625
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        {
          "date": "2026-07-06",
          "close": 43.91,
          "signal_return": 13.111798042246248,
          "fwd1": -9.314506946025958,
          "fwd3": -4.9874743794124266,
          "fwd5": -11.227510817581422
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-07-08",
          "close": 43.01,
          "signal_return": 8.011049723756901,
          "fwd1": -2.9993024877935315,
          "fwd3": -9.369913973494537,
          "fwd5": -10.997442455242956
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        {
          "date": "2026-07-20",
          "close": 40.2,
          "signal_return": 19.57168352171328,
          "fwd1": 2.711442786069651,
          "fwd3": 0.9452736318407817,
          "fwd5": -9.726368159203991
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        {
          "date": "2026-07-30",
          "close": 38.26,
          "signal_return": 30.53565336062778,
          "fwd1": -3.8159958180867815,
          "fwd3": 6.769472033455326,
          "fwd5": -0.8625196027182369
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-08-03",
          "close": 39.75,
          "signal_return": 8.016304347826097,
          "fwd1": 2.767295597484276,
          "fwd3": -4.578616352201259,
          "fwd5": -2.540880503144649
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        {
          "date": "2026-08-07",
          "close": 41.23,
          "signal_return": 8.700237279198507,
          "fwd1": -6.039291777831668,
          "fwd3": 5.918020858598116,
          "fwd5": 6.863934028619956
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        {
          "date": "2026-08-12",
          "close": 43.67,
          "signal_return": 9.861635220125798,
          "fwd1": 2.495992672315084,
          "fwd3": null,
          "fwd5": null
        }
      ]
    },
    "large_down": {
      "name": "Large down day ≤ −8%",
      "interpretation": "Large selloffs often produced mean-reversion rebounds in this sample.",
      "stats": {
        "1": {
          "n": 8,
          "avg": 5.658527766299147,
          "median": 2.9534611985388204,
          "positive": 50.0
        },
        "3": {
          "n": 8,
          "avg": 5.506375650080334,
          "median": 6.979561488378561,
          "positive": 62.5
        },
        "5": {
          "n": 8,
          "avg": 7.125071950359244,
          "median": 7.7641593235165285,
          "positive": 62.5
        }
      },
      "events": [
        {
          "date": "2026-06-05",
          "close": 54.35,
          "signal_return": -12.140316844487554,
          "fwd1": 8.905243790248374,
          "fwd3": -5.206991720331189,
          "fwd5": 9.972401103955853
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        {
          "date": "2026-06-09",
          "close": 54.02,
          "signal_return": -8.73458354451765,
          "fwd1": -4.6279155868196975,
          "fwd3": 10.644205849685306,
          "fwd5": 9.552017771195853
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-06-24",
          "close": 50.3,
          "signal_return": -8.077485380116967,
          "fwd1": -5.089463220675938,
          "fwd3": -8.727634194831014,
          "fwd5": -13.876739562624252
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        {
          "date": "2026-07-02",
          "close": 38.82,
          "signal_return": -10.387811634349031,
          "fwd1": 13.111798042246248,
          "fwd3": 10.793405461102523,
          "fwd5": 5.976300875837204
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-07-07",
          "close": 39.82,
          "signal_return": -9.314506946025958,
          "fwd1": 8.011049723756901,
          "fwd3": 3.3149171270718147,
          "fwd5": -3.0889000502260067
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-07-16",
          "close": 34.83,
          "signal_return": -9.012539184952983,
          "fwd1": -3.4740166523112292,
          "fwd3": 18.547229399942577,
          "fwd5": 16.508756818834346
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        {
          "date": "2026-07-24",
          "close": 37.07,
          "signal_return": -8.649581074420897,
          "fwd1": -2.1041273266792615,
          "fwd3": -20.933369301321825,
          "fwd5": -0.7283517669274375
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-07-29",
          "close": 29.31,
          "signal_return": -13.616268788682584,
          "fwd1": 30.53565336062778,
          "fwd3": 35.61924257932447,
          "fwd5": 32.68509041282839
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      ]
    },
    "three_up": {
      "name": "3 consecutive up closes",
      "interpretation": "The two valid three-rising-close sequences in this 50-session sample were followed by a next-day pullback; the sample is too small for a reliable forecast.",
      "stats": {
        "1": {
          "n": 2,
          "avg": -2.1541749551887426,
          "median": -2.1541749551887426,
          "positive": 0.0
        },
        "3": {
          "n": 1,
          "avg": -1.462612982744449,
          "median": -1.462612982744449,
          "positive": 0.0
        },
        "5": {
          "n": 1,
          "avg": -10.073952341824166,
          "median": -10.073952341824166,
          "positive": 0.0
        }
      },
      "events": [
        {
          "date": "2026-06-15",
          "close": 60.85,
          "signal_return": 1.806926551781829,
          "fwd1": -2.7444535743631926,
          "fwd3": -1.462612982744449,
          "fwd5": -10.073952341824166
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        {
          "date": "2026-08-13",
          "close": 44.76,
          "signal_return": 2.495992672315084,
          "fwd1": -1.5638963360142921,
          "fwd3": null,
          "fwd5": null
        }
      ]
    },
    "momentum5": {
      "name": "5-session return > +10%",
      "interpretation": "Extended five-session momentum often cooled over the next few sessions.",
      "stats": {
        "1": {
          "n": 8,
          "avg": -2.4929786350869247,
          "median": -2.2863141133267764,
          "positive": 25.0
        },
        "3": {
          "n": 6,
          "avg": -6.115327608225696,
          "median": -3.1097334087526685,
          "positive": 33.33333333333333
        },
        "5": {
          "n": 6,
          "avg": -1.3047810525772066,
          "median": -1.7105651123498877,
          "positive": 33.33333333333333
        }
      },
      "events": [
        {
          "date": "2026-06-17",
          "close": 58.11,
          "signal_return": -1.8080432578573835,
          "fwd1": 3.183617277577011,
          "fwd3": -5.833763551884363,
          "fwd5": -17.8454654964722
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        {
          "date": "2026-07-23",
          "close": 40.58,
          "signal_return": -1.6957364341085301,
          "fwd1": -8.649581074420897,
          "fwd3": -16.387382947264662,
          "fwd5": -5.7171020206998495
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-07-24",
          "close": 37.07,
          "signal_return": -8.649581074420897,
          "fwd1": -2.1041273266792615,
          "fwd3": -20.933369301321825,
          "fwd5": -0.7283517669274375
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        {
          "date": "2026-08-04",
          "close": 40.85,
          "signal_return": 2.767295597484276,
          "fwd1": -4.798041615667081,
          "fwd3": 0.9302325581395321,
          "fwd5": -2.692778457772338
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-08-05",
          "close": 38.89,
          "signal_return": -4.798041615667081,
          "fwd1": -2.468500899974291,
          "fwd3": -0.38570326562097357,
          "fwd5": 12.29107739778863
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-08-07",
          "close": 41.23,
          "signal_return": 8.700237279198507,
          "fwd1": -6.039291777831668,
          "fwd3": 5.918020858598116,
          "fwd5": 6.863934028619956
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-08-12",
          "close": 43.67,
          "signal_return": 9.861635220125798,
          "fwd1": 2.495992672315084,
          "fwd3": null,
          "fwd5": null
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-08-13",
          "close": 44.76,
          "signal_return": 2.495992672315084,
          "fwd1": -1.5638963360142921,
          "fwd3": null,
          "fwd5": null
        }
      ]
    },
    "gap_up": {
      "name": "Gap up ≥ +3%",
      "interpretation": "Gap-up sessions had weak next-day continuation on average.",
      "stats": {
        "1": {
          "n": 13,
          "avg": -1.290860711879045,
          "median": -1.5638963360142921,
          "positive": 30.76923076923077
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        "3": {
          "n": 11,
          "avg": -0.7553223552207121,
          "median": -1.462612982744449,
          "positive": 45.45454545454545
        },
        "5": {
          "n": 10,
          "avg": -6.664742398313652,
          "median": -9.900160250514078,
          "positive": 30.0
        }
      },
      "events": [
        {
          "date": "2026-06-08",
          "close": 59.19,
          "signal_return": 8.905243790248374,
          "fwd1": -8.73458354451765,
          "fwd3": -4.1898969420510195,
          "fwd5": 2.804527791856737
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-06-15",
          "close": 60.85,
          "signal_return": 1.806926551781829,
          "fwd1": -2.7444535743631926,
          "fwd3": -1.462612982744449,
          "fwd5": -10.073952341824166
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        {
          "date": "2026-06-18",
          "close": 59.96,
          "signal_return": 3.183617277577011,
          "fwd1": -5.15343562374917,
          "fwd3": -16.110740493662444,
          "fwd5": -21.264176117411605
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        {
          "date": "2026-06-25",
          "close": 47.74,
          "signal_return": -5.089463220675938,
          "fwd1": -1.1101801424382107,
          "fwd3": -4.21030582320906,
          "fwd5": -18.68454126518643
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        {
          "date": "2026-07-06",
          "close": 43.91,
          "signal_return": 13.111798042246248,
          "fwd1": -9.314506946025958,
          "fwd3": -4.9874743794124266,
          "fwd5": -11.227510817581422
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        {
          "date": "2026-07-09",
          "close": 41.72,
          "signal_return": -2.9993024877935315,
          "fwd1": -1.390220517737295,
          "fwd3": -7.502396931927125,
          "fwd5": -16.51486097794823
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        {
          "date": "2026-07-20",
          "close": 40.2,
          "signal_return": 19.57168352171328,
          "fwd1": 2.711442786069651,
          "fwd3": 0.9452736318407817,
          "fwd5": -9.726368159203991
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        {
          "date": "2026-07-30",
          "close": 38.26,
          "signal_return": 30.53565336062778,
          "fwd1": -3.8159958180867815,
          "fwd3": 6.769472033455326,
          "fwd5": -0.8625196027182369
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-07-31",
          "close": 36.8,
          "signal_return": -3.8159958180867815,
          "fwd1": 8.016304347826097,
          "fwd3": 5.679347826086967,
          "fwd5": 12.038043478260875
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        {
          "date": "2026-08-07",
          "close": 41.23,
          "signal_return": 8.700237279198507,
          "fwd1": -6.039291777831668,
          "fwd3": 5.918020858598116,
          "fwd5": 6.863934028619956
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        {
          "date": "2026-08-11",
          "close": 39.75,
          "signal_return": 2.6071244192049425,
          "fwd1": 9.861635220125798,
          "fwd3": 10.8427672955975,
          "fwd5": null
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-08-12",
          "close": 43.67,
          "signal_return": 9.861635220125798,
          "fwd1": 2.495992672315084,
          "fwd3": null,
          "fwd5": null
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-08-13",
          "close": 44.76,
          "signal_return": 2.495992672315084,
          "fwd1": -1.5638963360142921,
          "fwd3": null,
          "fwd5": null
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      ]
    },
    "weak_close": {
      "name": "Close in bottom 20% + RVOL > 1",
      "interpretation": "Weak closes on active volume often rebounded, but the sample was very small.",
      "stats": {
        "1": {
          "n": 4,
          "avg": 8.37719752401479,
          "median": 3.223576693871305,
          "positive": 50.0
        },
        "3": {
          "n": 3,
          "avg": 19.160463035446288,
          "median": 18.547229399942577,
          "positive": 100.0
        },
        "5": {
          "n": 3,
          "avg": 15.368315727145577,
          "median": 16.508756818834346,
          "positive": 66.66666666666666
        }
      },
      "events": [
        {
          "date": "2026-07-07",
          "close": 39.82,
          "signal_return": -9.314506946025958,
          "fwd1": 8.011049723756901,
          "fwd3": 3.3149171270718147,
          "fwd5": -3.0889000502260067
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-07-16",
          "close": 34.83,
          "signal_return": -9.012539184952983,
          "fwd1": -3.4740166523112292,
          "fwd3": 18.547229399942577,
          "fwd5": 16.508756818834346
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-07-29",
          "close": 29.31,
          "signal_return": -13.616268788682584,
          "fwd1": 30.53565336062778,
          "fwd3": 35.61924257932447,
          "fwd5": 32.68509041282839
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        {
          "date": "2026-08-13",
          "close": 44.76,
          "signal_return": 2.495992672315084,
          "fwd1": -1.5638963360142921,
          "fwd3": null,
          "fwd5": null
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      ]
    }
  },
  "analogs": {
    "summary": {
      "n": 8,
      "avg1": 1.559755725768068,
      "median1": 0.5216140415953252,
      "positive1": 50.0
    },
    "rows": [
      {
        "date": "2026-08-11",
        "close": 39.75,
        "distance": 1.09039288048418,
        "fwd1": 9.861635220125798,
        "fwd3": 10.8427672955975,
        "fwd5": null
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-10",
        "close": 38.74,
        "distance": 1.4254573016592986,
        "fwd1": 2.6071244192049425,
        "fwd3": 15.539494062983984,
        "fwd5": null
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-06",
        "close": 37.93,
        "distance": 1.9581974472541783,
        "fwd1": 8.700237279198507,
        "fwd3": 4.798312681254946,
        "fwd5": 18.006854732401777
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-04",
        "close": 40.85,
        "distance": 2.1967047581737975,
        "fwd1": -4.798041615667081,
        "fwd3": 0.9302325581395321,
        "fwd5": -2.692778457772338
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-13",
        "close": 44.76,
        "distance": 2.257996753914995,
        "fwd1": -1.5638963360142921,
        "fwd3": null,
        "fwd5": null
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 36.8,
        "distance": 2.261668070688759,
        "fwd1": 8.016304347826097,
        "fwd3": 5.679347826086967,
        "fwd5": 12.038043478260875
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-22",
        "close": 41.28,
        "distance": 2.280771678828943,
        "fwd1": -1.6957364341085301,
        "fwd3": -12.088178294573648,
        "fwd5": -28.997093023255815
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-23",
        "close": 40.58,
        "distance": 2.324342877900622,
        "fwd1": -8.649581074420897,
        "fwd3": -16.387382947264662,
        "fwd5": -5.7171020206998495
      }
    ]
  },
  "levels": {
    "pivot": [
      43.69,
      44.06,
      44.76
    ],
    "resistance": [
      46.43,
      49.19,
      50.3
    ],
    "support": [
      43.69,
      42.06,
      40.96,
      39.35,
      38.69
    ],
    "recovery_invalidation": 38.69,
    "breakout_confirmation": 46.43
  },
  "tomorrow": {
    "directional_read": "Neutral-to-bullish recovery with short-term overhead supply",
    "typical_close_band": [
      42.27,
      45.86
    ],
    "atr_band": [
      40.05,
      48.07
    ],
    "analog_median_price": 44.29,
    "scenario_weights": [
      {
        "name": "Range / consolidation",
        "weight": 45,
        "condition": "Price remains between $42.06 and $46.43",
        "path": "Two-sided trade; buyers hold the recovery but sellers continue defending the upper zone."
      },
      {
        "name": "Bullish continuation",
        "weight": 32,
        "condition": "Hold $43.69–$44.06 and close above $46.43",
        "path": "Buyers regain control above Friday’s high; $49.19 becomes the next test."
      },
      {
        "name": "Bearish retracement",
        "weight": 23,
        "condition": "Lose $42.06 and fail to reclaim it",
        "path": "Sellers regain short-term control; $40.96–$39.35 becomes the next support zone."
      }
    ],
    "warning": "Weights are analyst-judgment scenario weights, not calibrated probabilities or a recommendation."
  },
  "catalysts": [
    {
      "date": "2026-08-13",
      "type": "positive",
      "title": "Horizon 1 delivered to and accepted by Microsoft; NVIDIA Exemplar Cloud status achieved",
      "detail": "The first of four 50MW deployments under the five-year $9.7bn Microsoft cloud-services contract was delivered. The release also cited 480MW gross AI Cloud capacity targeted for 2026 and 1.2GW for 2027."
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-13",
      "type": "event",
      "title": "FY26 results scheduled for August 27, 2026",
      "detail": "The upcoming report can increase event risk and implied expectations even before the release."
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-04",
      "type": "positive",
      "title": "Mirantis acquisition completed",
      "detail": "IREN said the acquisition strengthens software, orchestration, monitoring and customer support; consideration included approximately 12.6m shares plus other consideration."
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-20",
      "type": "positive",
      "title": "New AI Cloud contracts and higher ARR target",
      "detail": "IREN announced $2.8bn of new contracts and raised its year-end 2026 AI Cloud ARR target to more than $4bn, with about 85% under contract."
    }
  ],
  "risks": [
    {
      "title": "Execution and valuation expectations",
      "detail": "The stock is reacting to large future-capacity and revenue targets; delays, costs or utilization below expectations can reprice the shares quickly."
    },
    {
      "title": "Capital intensity and dilution",
      "detail": "IREN disclosed a $6bn at-the-market facility and substantial share issuance in 2026; financing growth can dilute existing holders."
    },
    {
      "title": "Debt and purchase commitments",
      "detail": "The company has issued large convertible-note financings and disclosed multi-billion-dollar GPU purchase commitments."
    },
    {
      "title": "High volatility",
      "detail": "The 14-session ATR is about $4.01, roughly 9.1% of the current close; gaps and wide intraday ranges are normal in the recent sample."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "id": "S1",
      "name": "StockAnalysis / S&P Global Market Intelligence historical prices",
      "url": "https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/iren/history/",
      "use": "50 completed daily OHLCV bars from June 4 through August 14, 2026."
    },
    {
      "id": "S2",
      "name": "WSJ market data snapshot",
      "url": "https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/IREN/historical-prices",
      "use": "August 14 close, after-hours price, volume, 65-day average volume, daily and 52-week ranges."
    },
    {
      "id": "S3",
      "name": "IREN investor news",
      "url": "https://iren.com/investors/news",
      "use": "Official release dates and recent company announcements."
    },
    {
      "id": "S4",
      "name": "GlobeNewswire — Horizon 1 / NVIDIA status",
      "url": "https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/08/13/3344413/0/en/iren-delivers-horizon-1-to-microsoft-and-achieves-nvidia-exemplar-cloud-status-on-gb300-nvl72.html",
      "use": "Horizon 1, Microsoft contract and capacity-target details."
    },
    {
      "id": "S5",
      "name": "GlobeNewswire — FY26 results date",
      "url": "https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/08/13/3344878/0/en/iren-to-release-fy26-results-on-august-27-2026.html",
      "use": "August 27 earnings date and call time."
    },
    {
      "id": "S6",
      "name": "GlobeNewswire — July 20 contracts",
      "url": "https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/07/20/3329624/0/en/iren-signs-2-8bn-in-new-customer-contracts-with-leading-ai-developers-raises-2026-arr-target-to-over-4bn.html",
      "use": "New contracts and ARR target."
    },
    {
      "id": "S7",
      "name": "SEC Form 10-Q for March 31, 2026",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1878848/000187884826000026/iren-20260331.htm",
      "use": "ATM issuance, shares outstanding, convertible notes and GPU purchase commitments."
    },
    {
      "id": "S8",
      "name": "TradingView IREN market overview",
      "url": "https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NASDAQ-IREN/",
      "use": "All-time high, reported volatility and earnings date cross-check."
    }
  ]
}