Carbon dating rests on one observation: a radioactive atom has the same chance of decaying in any given year, whatever its age, so the number of atoms that decay in a year is proportional to the number still there. That is a rate proportional to the size, the equation of “Exponential Growth” with the direction reversed.
Definition · Radioactive decayA quantity decays at rate constant k > 0 when y′ = −k·y. Its half-life T is the time in which any amount falls to half.
The sign is written outside k so that k can be read as a size. In the lab the rate box holds the signed coefficient, −k.
The solution is y = y₀·e^(−kt), by the same separation. It has halved when e^(−kT) = 1/2, and taking the natural logarithm of both sides gives −kT = −ln 2. That is the same relation as the doubling time of the previous lesson, with the same independence from the start.
y′ = −k·y, y = y₀·e^(−kt)
halved when e^(−kT) = 1/2
k·T = ln 2
T = ln 2/k k = ln 2/T
k = 3/25000 per year:
T = (25000/3)·ln 2 ≈ 5776.23 years (rounded)
Which rate the lab uses
A measured half-life for carbon-14 is commonly quoted as about 5730 years. Turning it into a rate gives ln 2/5730, which is irrational, and Euler's factor would then be rounded. The lab instead uses the fraction k = 3/25000 per year, which is 0.00012: a rate that keeps every Euler step exact, and a half-life that prints as ≈ 5776.23, close to the measured one and not equal to it. That difference is the cost of choosing a rational rate, and it is stated here so that the lab's age is not read as a measurement.
From what is left to an age
If a fraction f of the original is left, then e^(−kt) = f, and the age is t = ln(1/f)/k. For the fractions that are powers of one half this needs no new calculation, because each halving costs one T.
time since start fraction left
0 1
T 1/2
2T 1/4
3T 1/8
a sample with 15% left lies between 2T and 3T,
since 1/8 < 15% < 1/4
The last line is a check that needs no logarithm: it brackets the age before any rounded figure is computed, and a rounded answer outside the bracket is wrong.
The exact sequence beside it
With a step of one century the Euler factor is 1 − 100·(3/25000) = 247/250, an exact fraction, and the sequence (247/250)ⁿ is geometric as before. The lab prints the first step at which it has fallen to one half or below. The step is a whole number of centuries, so it lands near the half-life ≈ 5776.23 on the grid and not on it.
Example · A quarter leftSwitch the lab to the second preset, whose target is 1/4 and whose step is 200 years. The half-life tile still reads ≈ 5776.23, because that tile depends on the rate and not on the target. The age of a sample with a quarter left is twice it, ≈ 11552.5 years, a figure the reader computes from the tile and the lab does not print. The step tile gives the grid's version of the same crossing: step 58 (t = 11600), which is within one 200-year step of ≈ 11552.5.
The third preset is the same arithmetic with round numbers: a rate of 1/4 per unit time, a start of 100 and a target of 50. The factor is 3/4; (3/4)² = 9/16 is still above one half and (3/4)³ = 27/64 is below it, so the lab prints step 3 (t = 3) while the half-life tile reads ≈ 2.77259, which is 4·ln 2, rounded.
What dating assumes should be said as plainly as what it computes. It assumes the sample began with a known amount, that nothing entered or left it except by decay, and that the rate constant has not changed. The lab computes what follows from those assumptions; whether they hold for a particular sample is not something it can tell you.